SpaceX Shares Plunge Over 50% from Peak Ahead of First Earnings, Lock-Up Expiration

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares have tumbled more than 50% from their post-IPO peak, erasing tens of billions in market value as the company approaches its first earnings release as a public company and a major insider lock-up expiration.

The stock, which listed at $135 per share on June 12, surged to an intraday high of $225.64 in the days following its blockbuster debut. By late July, however, shares had fallen to around $113.50, according to BusinessDay, decisively below the initial offering price. The decline represents a loss of more than half the stock's value from its peak.

Market participants are now focused on two near-term catalysts. The company is expected to report its first quarterly results as a listed entity on August 4, according to BusinessDay. Two days later, on August 6, restrictions on insider share sales are set to expire, potentially allowing early investors and employees to sell into the market and adding to supply-side pressure.

**Valuation and Cash Burn in Focus**

The pullback reflects a broad reassessment of SpaceX's valuation, which remains among the highest in global equity markets despite the correction. The company's market capitalization stands at roughly $1.5 trillion, putting it in the top 10 largest companies worldwide.

However, the stock trades at a price-to-sales multiple of 78 as of the week ending July 24, according to a Nasdaq report. By comparison, Nvidia, the world's most valuable company, trades at a sales multiple of 20. The elevated ratio suggests the market is still pricing in substantial future growth, even after the recent decline.

SpaceX's financials show widening losses. The company reported a first-quarter operating loss of $1.9 billion, a sharp reversal from the $27 million operating income it recorded in all of 2025, according to a Nasdaq analysis. On a GAAP basis, the first-quarter loss widened to $4.3 billion from $528 million a year earlier, as reported by another Nasdaq article. Full-year 2025 losses totaled $4.9 billion, compared with a $791 million profit in 2024.

Revenue growth has also slowed. First-quarter revenue rose 15.4% year over year to $4.7 billion, with the launch business declining 28% to $619 million. Starlink, the satellite internet division, posted 31.6% revenue growth to $3.3 billion and remains the company's only profitable segment, generating $1.2 million in operating income.

Capital expenditures are accelerating sharply. SpaceX spent $20.7 billion in 2025, nearly double the $11.2 billion it spent the prior year, according to a Nasdaq report.

**Analyst Views Sharply Divided**

Wall Street remains broadly bullish on the stock, but the range of price targets is extraordinarily wide, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the company's valuation.

Of 31 analysts who have issued price targets since the IPO, 23 rate the stock a buy, seven a hold, and one a sell, according to TipRanks data cited by multiple reports. The average price target of roughly $235 per share implies more than a doubling from current levels.

At the most bearish end, Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens issued a sell rating with a $63-per-share price target before the IPO, as reported by Nasdaq and The Motley Fool. Even in his optimistic scenario, which assumes Starship achieves multiple launches per week and orbital data centers are operational, Owens would value the company at $154 per share.

At the opposite extreme, Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale assigned an $800 price target, valuing the company at roughly $10 trillion, according to the same reports. He called SpaceX "the most significant infrastructure convergence since the advent of the Internet," projecting more than $837 billion in revenue by 2031.

**Morgan Stanley Stays Bullish**

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, cited by BusinessDay, maintains an overweight rating and a $300 price target. He argued that a drop to $100 per share would imply the market assigns zero value to SpaceX's artificial intelligence business. Jonas values the company's core space and connectivity operations at about $136 per share, with the remainder of his target depending on AI infrastructure potential.

SpaceX's AI division, which houses the social platform X, Grok intelligence, data centers, and a future terafab facility, has a total addressable market of $26.5 trillion, according to its registration statement. But the company's ability to capture that market depends on fully operationalizing the Starship rocket for orbital data centers and further Starlink expansion.

**What Investors Are Watching**

The August 4 earnings report is expected to provide the clearest view yet of SpaceX's path to sustainable profitability. Investors will scrutinize Starlink revenue growth, launch margins, progress on Starship, AI investment updates, and management's guidance on capital spending and revenue outlook.

The upcoming lock-up expiration could add near-term volatility. Weak results or cautious guidance risk prolonging the sell-off, while strong execution and improving margins could restore confidence. For now, the stock remains a battleground between those who see a buying opportunity at current levels and those who believe the trillion-dollar valuation still requires proof that the company's technological leadership can translate into earnings growth.