Bitcoin Tops $80,000; Analysts Debate Whether Cyclical Bottom Is In

Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 on Tuesday for the first time in more than three months, extending a rally that has wiped out billions of dollars in bearish leveraged bets and revived debate over whether the cryptocurrency market has found a cyclical bottom.

The world’s largest digital asset touched $81,237.94 during the session, according to data from CoinMarketCap cited by multiple sources, before easing to trade around $79,300 by Tuesday evening. Bitcoin has gained roughly 23% over the past seven days—its biggest weekly advance in about three years—and is up approximately 28% in August alone.

The surge reflects a confluence of macro and policy drivers. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the US would “at least double” the maximum size of certain long-dated Treasury bond buyback operations to $4 billion, starting in September. The plan, intended to push down long-term yields, triggered a fresh round of dollar selling and revived what analysts call the “debasement trade”—a bet on assets like gold and bitcoin that are seen as hedges against fiat currency devaluation.

The macro shift coincided with a meeting between President Donald Trump and prominent crypto industry leaders at the White House. During the meeting, Trump urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, an industry-backed bill that would create a clearer US regulatory framework for digital assets. The legislation has stalled in the Senate; a procedural vote is scheduled for Sept. 15, according to reports.

The rapid price advance caught many short sellers off guard. Coinglass data cited by multiple sources showed roughly $7.2 billion in leveraged bearish bets across all crypto assets were liquidated in the past week. The short squeeze acted as a catalyst, accelerating a rally already fueled by resurgent institutional demand.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds listed in the US drew a net $1.92 billion in inflows last week, the strongest weekly haul since October, according to Bloomberg data cited in multiple reports. A further $337 million in net inflows was recorded on Monday. In a specific breakdown, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF gained $209 million in funds on Monday and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund gained $105 million, according to Nasdaq. The price of Ethereum also rose sharply, with the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF adding nearly $91 million in assets under management on Monday, the same source reported.

Analysts Split on Sustainability

The question investors are asking is whether the rally has legs or is merely a short-lived squeeze. Several analysts see signs of a durable turnaround, but caution that confirmation hinges on upcoming macro events.

Alice Liu, Head of Research at CoinMarketCap, offered a detailed read on the move in a note reported by Khaleej Times. She argued that leveraged positioning was not the root cause, noting open interest stands at just 1.2% of Bitcoin’s market cap—modest by breakout standards. Instead, she pointed to the combination of near $2 billion in ETF inflows over six consecutive days and an additional $944 million in spot buying, which she said “walked straight into stale short positions.” She emphasized: “The shorts didn’t cause the move, they were the fuel it burned on the way through $80,000.”

Liu flagged a daily close above $80,000 on strong volume as the key technical marker to confirm the breakout, with support around $76,000. She also highlighted a rising correlation between Bitcoin and gold—now at +0.46, the highest since 2021—indicating that Bitcoin is “trading like gold, not like tech stocks.”

Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, struck a notably bullish tone in a note reported by the New York Post. “This momentum has caught the attention of investors who had previously been looking elsewhere, and we are now seeing retail participants and smaller wallets begin to take positions,” he wrote. “This comes ahead of what some analysts, myself included, expect could be a continued ascent for Bitcoin, potentially taking BTC towards $100,000 by year-end.”

Other analysts were more measured. Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer at Century Financial, attributed the 27% two-week surge to Bessent’s bond-buyback plan and forced liquidations. While acknowledging that institutional flows are re-engaging, he warned that “a single strong week during a squeeze can reflect momentum-chasing as much as durable, strategic allocation” and that sustained gains require continued regulatory progress and institutional buying.

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, said a pullback toward $75,000–$76,000 would be consistent with profit-taking once forced liquidations clear. He sees near-term trading in the $74,000–$81,000 range, with a sustained break above $80,000 backed by continued ETF inflows potentially opening the door to the $82,000–$87,000 level.

Allen Ding, Research Director at Bitfire, cautioned in a note that a new bull market “should not yet be treated as a confirmed trend.” He said that if institutional participation, regulatory progress, and capital rotation continue to reinforce one another, the current move could mark the beginning of a new cycle.

A summary from Benzinga reported that analysts say Bitcoin and Ethereum have already bottomed, though Bitcoin needs a weekly close above $83,000 to confirm a new bull market.

Risks Ahead: Jackson Hole and Inflation Data

Much of the near-term outlook hinges on two data points this week. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, is due Wednesday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers a keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.

Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau, cautioned that the rally remains vulnerable. “Everything hinges on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s keynote at Jackson Hole on Friday,” he told the New York Post. “If it’s dovish, the euphoria could gain a fresh catalyst. But if he’s hawkish, this could stop the rally in its tracks.”

A hawkish tone would imply tighter monetary policy, which tends to drain liquidity from risk assets including crypto. Conversely, dovish signals could provide additional fuel.

Supply Constraints and Mining Pressure

On the supply side, roughly 60% of Bitcoin in circulation has not moved for more than a year, according to Cici Lu McCalman, founder of Venn Link Partners, as cited by Business Standard. “A lot of Bitcoin effectively isn’t available to trade,” she said. “So when ETF demand suddenly accelerates, the marginal available supply can be quite tight.”

However, that dynamic cuts both ways. Miners have been “under severe financial pressure,” McCalman noted. The average cost to mine one Bitcoin was just under $80,000 at the end of last year, according to CoinShares data. A move above that level could prompt miners to sell, adding supply and capping gains. Rajiv Sawhney, head of international portfolio management at Wave Digital Assets, said a price increase “could prompt supply to sell from this cohort looking to monetize and de-risk their Bitcoin exposure.”

Broader Market Gains

The rally lifted the entire crypto market. Ethereum rose more than 28% over the past week, while Solana gained nearly 27%. The total crypto market cap increased by 0.5% on Tuesday, according to CoinGecko data cited by Nasdaq.

Crypto-related equities also moved higher. Robinhood, Coinbase, and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) rose 6.9%, 4%, and 3.4%, respectively, on Tuesday, the New York Post reported.

Bitcoin remains well below its all-time high of roughly $126,000 reached last October and its 2026 high of about $94,820 in mid-January. With a key macro week ahead and the CLARITY Act vote looming in September, traders are watching whether the rally can hold above $80,000 and build on the momentum.