Nigeria's Economy Grows Over 4% in 2026; Tinubu Declares 'Age of Prosperity' as Non-Oil Sectors Drive Expansion

President Bola Tinubu declared Nigeria’s economy had entered an “age of prosperity” in his Independence Day address Thursday, citing growth of more than 4% in 2026 and signalling a shift from crisis-era reforms toward lowering living costs and attracting investment.

The economy grew 4.43% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). That compares with 3.89% in the first quarter and 4.23% in the corresponding quarter of 2025. First-half growth stood at about 4.16%, up from 3.68% in the first half of last year.

The expansion was overwhelmingly driven by non-oil activity. The non-oil sector accounted for 95.84% of real GDP in the second quarter and grew 4.31% year-on-year. The services sector was the largest contributor, representing 56.62% of output and expanding 4.60%. Agriculture, which contributed 26.15% to GDP, rose 4.39% versus 2.82% a year earlier. Manufacturing, construction, trade and financial services also supported the increase.

The oil sector, despite growing 7.31% year-on-year, made up only 4.16% of real GDP. Average daily crude oil production edged up to 1.72 million barrels per day in the second quarter from 1.68 million in the same period of 2025.

Full-year 2025 growth was 3.87%, NBS data show, accelerating from 3.38% in 2024. The Q2 2026 performance was the fastest second-quarter expansion in five years and the strongest quarterly reading since Q3 2024.

**Shift from reform to prosperity**

Tinubu said the government’s priority had moved from correcting macroeconomic distortions to lowering the cost of living and boosting industrial output. He pointed to falling inflation, improved foreign-exchange stability, rebuilt foreign reserves and more than $6 billion in non-oil export revenue in 2025 — which he described as the highest in the country’s history — as evidence of a stronger foundation.

“Our economy has grown by over 4% this year. Both oil and non-oil sectors have contributed to the renewed period of stable growth,” he said in the address.

“The age of reform has done its work. Now begins the age of prosperity.”

The president said the next phase would centre on reducing the cost of producing and transporting goods through expanded irrigation, dry-season farming, improved access to seeds and fertiliser, and investment in storage and transport infrastructure. He also pledged to use Nigeria’s gas resources to power industries, revive factories, expand digital connectivity and improve business access to finance.

“We are therefore placing jobs, enterprise, and industrial growth at the heart of our government’s policies,” he said.

Tinubu acknowledged that growth alone had not eliminated hardship for households, citing persistent struggles with food, education, healthcare and transport costs. He attributed the situation to “decades of low productivity, inadequate infrastructure, limited opportunities and institutional weaknesses.”

“We cannot erase in four years what accumulated over generations. But we can change its course,” he said.

The government will continue social programmes including improvements to the National Social Register, the Nigerian Education Loan Fund and consumer credit through CREDICORP, alongside investments in primary healthcare and basic education.

**Caution from analysts**

The Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association described Q2 growth as a positive signal but cautioned that the recovery remained fragile, with businesses still facing difficult operating conditions. Analysts have also noted that headline GDP growth does not necessarily translate into improved living standards for households.

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s 2025 outlook, as cited in the president’s address, foreign reserves were estimated at $45.01 billion at the end of 2025. Tinubu said oil theft had declined and foreign direct investment was rising.

The government’s stated challenge now is ensuring that improved macroeconomic indicators generate tangible gains for a population facing high costs and limited opportunities — a test that will determine whether the “age of prosperity” rhetoric translates into sustained emerging-market momentum.