SpaceX Plunge Hits 50% as Lockup Expiration, First Earnings Loom

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares have tumbled more than 50% from their post-IPO peak, erasing more than $1 trillion in market value as the company heads into a critical week of its first earnings report and the expiration of insider lockup restrictions.

The stock closed Friday at $115, down from its June 12 IPO price of $135 and far below the post-listing high of $225.64 hit days after its market debut, according to multiple reports. The decline has pulled the company's market capitalization to roughly $1.5 trillion.

Two-Pronged Catalyst

Two events next week will test investor conviction. SpaceX is expected to report its first quarterly earnings as a public company on August 4, followed by the expiration of the initial lockup period on August 6.

CNBC's Jim Cramer cautioned investors against buying the dip before the lockup expires. "Generally speaking, more supply results in lower prices," Cramer said, noting that roughly 911.5 million shares will become eligible for sale next Thursday, more than doubling SpaceX's public float.

The earnings report will provide the first detailed look at the financial performance of SpaceX's core businesses, including Starlink satellite internet, launch services, and its artificial intelligence infrastructure segment. Cramer said much of Wall Street's near-term optimism depends on the company's ability to monetize excess computing capacity, but he warned that multibillion-dollar rental agreements with Anthropic and Alphabet can be canceled by either party with 90 days' notice. "From my perspective, that makes this new revenue stream very tough to model, because nobody's really locked in," he said.

Revenue Growth, Heavy Spending

SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 but reported a net loss of about $5 billion, according to Nasdaq and Finbold. The Starlink internet business contributed $11.4 billion in revenue, while the space segment generated $4 billion and the AI segment $3.2 billion. Capital expenditures for the consolidated business reached $10 billion in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting heavy investment in AI infrastructure, Starship development, and Starlink expansion.

The company's price-to-sales ratio stands at roughly 80 based on 2025 revenue, a level that several analysts consider stretched even after the sell-off.

Analyst Views Remain Divided

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, as reported by BusinessDay, maintains an overweight rating and a $300 price target on SpaceX. He argued that a drop to $100 per share would imply investors assign zero value to the company's AI business, valuing core space and connectivity operations at about $136 per share. The average analyst price target remains well above the current share price, but the range between bullish and bearish estimates is wide, underscoring uncertainty about future cash flows.

Cramer said he remains bullish on SpaceX's long-term prospects but urged patience. "Even if they report a great quarter on Tuesday, I don't know if it can withstand the lockup expiration on Thursday," he said.

Steep Correction in Historical Context

The post-IPO decline ranks among the worst for large U.S. public offerings in the past decade, according to Finbold. SpaceX has underperformed roughly 90% of all U.S. IPOs valued at $1 billion or more since July 2009. While first-year pullbacks of 17% to 25% are common, the speed and scale of SpaceX's decline stand out.

Additional pressure has come from a scrubbed Starship test flight in July, concerns about the company's ESG profile, and a broader market rotation away from high-growth technology and AI-related names, Finbold reported.

What Investors Are Watching

Investors will scrutinize the August 4 earnings report for revenue growth from Starlink, profitability of launch operations, updates on AI investments, progress on Starship development, and management's guidance on revenue, margins, and future capital expenditure. The lockup expiration the following day will test whether the selling pressure from insiders and early investors is already priced in.

The next week will determine whether the sell-off represents a buying opportunity or the beginning of a longer valuation reset for a company that went public with a $1.8 trillion valuation and now trades at roughly $1.5 trillion.