Section

Analysis

Deep-dive perspectives on economy, markets, business, policy, and opinion from The Ledger's analysts.

Economy

Macro trends, growth, inflation, and labor markets.

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Economy3 August 20263 min read

UK recession risk rises if Strait of Hormuz stays closed until 2027, EY warns

The UK economy faces a potential contraction next year if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut through early to mid-2027, according to a new EY forecast that underscores the geo-economic threat from the Iran conflict. Growth would slow to 0.5% in 2026 and turn negative at -0.2% in 2027, while inflation could surge to 6.4%.

Elena Voss

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Economy3 August 20264 min read

Fed Holds Rates Steady as Three Dissent; Warsh Faces Pressure from Trump and Inflation

The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep its benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a rate hike, as Chair Kevin Warsh navigates persistent inflation, the Iran war, and explicit calls from President Trump for lower borrowing costs.

Elena Voss

Economy3 August 20265 min read

Fed holds rates at 3.5-3.75% in 9-3 vote, three dissenters signal hawkish pivot

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged Wednesday, but three regional bank presidents dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike, the first time in nearly a decade that three members have voted for an increase. The split raises the probability of a September rate move as inflation remains above target and the Middle East conflict fuels energy costs.

Elena Voss

Economy2 August 20266 min read

Fed Holds Rate Steady at 3.5%-3.75% Amid Deepest Dissent in a Decade; Hawkish Signals Rattle Markets

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at a 9-3 vote, the largest dissent in nearly a decade, as three regional presidents pushed for a quarter-point hike. Markets sold off on the hawkish hold, with the dollar sliding and bond yields rising, as traders priced in an over 80% chance of a September increase.

Elena Voss

Markets

Cross-asset moves, volatility, and market structure.

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Markets4 August 20264 min read

Dow Closes at Record as Oil Plunge on Iran Talks Optimism Fuels Broad Rally

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high Monday, propelled by a sharp drop in oil prices after President Donald Trump signaled renewed talks with Iran, sending Treasury yields lower and lifting risk appetite across Wall Street.

Marcus Chen

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Markets4 August 20264 min read

Wall Street Hits Record as Iran De-escalation Sends Oil Lower

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at an all-time high Monday after President Donald Trump signaled a pause in military strikes on Iran, dragging crude prices down sharply and easing inflation fears across markets.

Marcus Chen

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Markets3 August 20264 min read

Amazon Shares Surge 14% on Blowout Earnings; JPMorgan Lifts Target to $365

Shares of Amazon rallied nearly 14% Friday after the company reported stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings, driven by accelerating cloud growth and easing investor concerns over AI spending. JPMorgan raised its price target to $365, implying nearly 40% upside from current levels.

Marcus Chen

Markets3 August 20264 min read

Amazon Surges 15.3% on Blowout Earnings, JPMorgan Upgrade; Apple Falls on Supply Warning

Amazon shares leaped 15.3% on Friday after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly profit, with JPMorgan raising its price target to $365, while Apple dropped 7.4% on a cautious outlook. The divergent moves drove the S&P 500 to a 0.7% gain and the Nasdaq to a 1% rally.

Marcus Chen

Business

Corporate strategy, earnings, and industry shifts.

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Business5 August 20266 min read

Paramount Skydance Beats Q2 Estimates, Raises Outlook as Streaming Gains and WBD Merger Trial Set

Paramount Skydance reported revenue of $6.91 billion, topping Wall Street expectations, and raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance as streaming profits surged. The company also confirmed a March 2027 trial date for the antitrust challenge to its planned $110 billion merger with Warner Bros. Discovery, with CEO David Ellison expressing confidence in closing the deal.

James Holloway

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Business5 August 20264 min read

Paramount Skydance Raises Guidance, Reiterates Confidence in WBD Merger as Antitrust Trial Set for March 2027

Paramount Skydance reported a net profit of $41 million and raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook to $3.8 billion–$3.9 billion, while CEO David Ellison said the company remains “highly confident” in its pending $110 billion merger with Warner Bros. Discovery despite a March trial date.

Rachel Sinclair

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Business2 August 20264 min read

Eaton shares surge 7.3% on record Q2 earnings, raised full-year outlook

Eaton Corp. beat second-quarter estimates with adjusted EPS of $3.15 and revenue of $8.53 billion, sending shares up more than 7% and prompting management to lift its full-year guidance above consensus.

James Holloway

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Business2 August 20263 min read

Eaton Stock Surges 7.3% on Record Quarterly Earnings, Raised Full-Year Guidance

Eaton Corporation shares jumped Friday after the industrial giant reported record adjusted earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street estimates, driven by strong electrical and data-center demand, and lifted its full-year profit outlook.

James Holloway

Policy

Regulation, legislation, and government action.

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Policy8 August 20264 min read

White House Revives Push to Remove Fed's Cook, Testing Central Bank Independence

The White House gave Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook three weeks to respond to mortgage-fraud allegations, renewing an effort to oust her after the Supreme Court blocked an initial firing and intensifying pressure on the central bank's political independence.

Elena Voss

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Policy8 August 20264 min read

Trump Revives Bid to Fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Citing Mortgage Fraud Allegations

The White House formally notified Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook that President Trump is considering her removal over alleged false statements on mortgage applications, giving her three weeks to respond. The move follows a Supreme Court ruling in June that blocked an initial firing but allowed the president to try again with proper process.

Catherine Reed

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Policy8 August 20265 min read

U.S. Jobs Slide 23,000 in July, Downward Revisions Press Fed to Hold Rates

The economy shed 23,000 jobs last month, well below the 80,000 gain expected, and earlier hiring figures were slashed by a combined 103,000. The data pushed market bets on a September rate hike below 45% and sent the S&P 500 to a record close.

Elena Voss

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Policy8 August 20267 min read

US Jobs Shed 23,000 in July, Sending Stocks to Record and Killing Fed Rate-Hike Bets

The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, crushing expectations for an 80,000 gain and pushing the S&P 500 to a record close as traders slashed the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to about 44%.

Elena Voss