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Economy

Macro trends, growth, inflation, and labor markets.

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Economy14 de septiembre de 20264 min de lectura

Anthropic Model Maps AI's 2030 Economic Impact: Growth vs. Mass Unemployment

Anthropic released an economic model projecting that rapid AI adoption could boost annual US growth to 15.4% by 2030 while driving overall unemployment to 11.9%, with cognitive employment collapsing 21.5%. The model explicitly excludes catastrophic outcomes that company researchers and a former employee have warned about.

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Economy14 de septiembre de 20264 min de lectura

Anthropic Model Projects AI-Driven GDP Boom and Labor Disruption by 2030

An economic model from Anthropic suggests AI could boost U.S. GDP by up to 32% by 2030 while triggering double-digit unemployment among knowledge workers. The lab's own researchers privately estimate a greater than 10% chance the technology could eliminate humanity.

An antique typewriter with cryptoeconomics text on paper against a grassy background.

Economy13 de septiembre de 20265 min de lectura

Anthropic's AI economic model forecasts booms and busts, omits extinction scenario

Anthropic released an economic model projecting US GDP could rise 1.6% to 32.4% by 2030 depending on AI adoption, with unemployment reaching as high as 11.9% in the most extreme case. The model does not account for the technology's catastrophic risks or an AI bubble, even as senior employees publicly warned this week of a greater than 10% chance AI could kill everyone.

Detailed world map featuring toy ships and colored pins plotted over the Indian Ocean.

Economy13 de septiembre de 20265 min de lectura

Anthropic Model Maps AI's Potential to Turbocharge GDP or Spur Mass Unemployment by 2030

Anthropic released economic scenarios for the US by 2030 that range from a modest 1.6% GDP boost to an unprecedented 32.4% surge, but the extreme path sees unemployment spike to 11.9% and a historic shift in income from workers to capital owners.

An antique typewriter with cryptoeconomics text on paper against a grassy background.

Economy12 de septiembre de 20264 min de lectura

Anthropic AI Economic Model Projects Up to 32% GDP Gain, Double-Digit Unemployment by 2030

Anthropic released a detailed economic model on Wednesday showing artificial intelligence could boost U.S. GDP by as much as 32.4% by the end of the decade or drive unemployment above 11% in a worst-case scenario, with knowledge workers bearing the heaviest losses.

A USA map with cannabis joints and coins, symbolizing legal marijuana and its economic impact.

Economy12 de septiembre de 20264 min de lectura

Anthropic Maps AI's Economic Upside – and Its Omissions

The AI company released scenarios Wednesday projecting GDP gains from 1.6% to 32.4% above baseline by 2030, with the most extreme case showing 15.4% annual growth but 11.9% unemployment. The model excludes catastrophic outcomes that company staff have publicly warned about.

Two women pose back to back in a minimalist studio setting, showcasing elegant fashion and beauty.

Economy11 de septiembre de 20264 min de lectura

Anthropic Model Projects AI Could Boost U.S. GDP by Over 30% or Drive Historic Unemployment by 2030

Anthropic released an interactive economic model showing U.S. outcomes through 2030 across three AI adoption scenarios, ranging from a modest GDP lift to an extreme where output rises 32% but unemployment may spike to levels unseen in history.

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Economy11 de septiembre de 20265 min de lectura

US debt surge sparks global recession fears as Australian Treasury war-games fallout

The Australian Treasury is modeling the financial impact of soaring global interest rates on government debt, oil prices and inflation, warning the confluence of risks led by runaway US borrowing could drive the world into recession. President Donald Trump’s promise of $5,000 payments to every American adult, costing at least $1.3 trillion, has added fresh fuel to bond market turmoil.

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Economy10 de septiembre de 20264 min de lectura

Anthropic Launches AI Economic Model, Projects Growth and Disruption Risks

Anthropic released an interactive economic model projecting how AI could reshape the U.S. economy by 2030, from modest growth with little disruption to an extreme scenario where GDP surges 32% but unemployment spikes to nearly 14%. The tool allows users to test their own assumptions about AI capability, adoption, and worker displacement.

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Economy25 de agosto de 20266 min de lectura

Iran rial hits record low as US launches 'Operation Economic Outcast' sanctions

Iran's rial plunged to a record low of 2.02 million per dollar Monday as Washington announced a new sanctions campaign — "Operation Economic Outcast" — and warned countries still trading with Tehran they could be next.

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Economy3 de agosto de 20263 min de lectura

UK recession risk rises if Strait of Hormuz stays closed until 2027, EY warns

The UK economy faces a potential contraction next year if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut through early to mid-2027, according to a new EY forecast that underscores the geo-economic threat from the Iran conflict. Growth would slow to 0.5% in 2026 and turn negative at -0.2% in 2027, while inflation could surge to 6.4%.

Vibrant stock market display showing exchange rates for USD, EUR, and GBP. Perfect for finance themes.

Economy3 de agosto de 20264 min de lectura

Fed Holds Rates Steady as Three Dissent; Warsh Faces Pressure from Trump and Inflation

The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep its benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a rate hike, as Chair Kevin Warsh navigates persistent inflation, the Iran war, and explicit calls from President Trump for lower borrowing costs.

Vibrant stock market display showing exchange rates for USD, EUR, and GBP. Perfect for finance themes.

Economy3 de agosto de 20265 min de lectura

Fed holds rates at 3.5-3.75% in 9-3 vote, three dissenters signal hawkish pivot

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged Wednesday, but three regional bank presidents dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike, the first time in nearly a decade that three members have voted for an increase. The split raises the probability of a September rate move as inflation remains above target and the Middle East conflict fuels energy costs.

Vibrant stock market display showing exchange rates for USD, EUR, and GBP. Perfect for finance themes.

Economy2 de agosto de 20266 min de lectura

Fed Holds Rate Steady at 3.5%-3.75% Amid Deepest Dissent in a Decade; Hawkish Signals Rattle Markets

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at a 9-3 vote, the largest dissent in nearly a decade, as three regional presidents pushed for a quarter-point hike. Markets sold off on the hawkish hold, with the dollar sliding and bond yields rising, as traders priced in an over 80% chance of a September increase.

Vibrant stock market display showing exchange rates for USD, EUR, and GBP. Perfect for finance themes.

Economy2 de agosto de 20265 min de lectura

Fed holds rates steady, three dissenters push for hike as inflation pressures persist

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three regional bank presidents favoring a quarter-point increase. Markets sold off on the hawkish tilt, with the Dow falling over 700 points ahead of the decision and oil prices surging above $90 a barrel amid the expanding Middle East conflict.

Vibrant stock market display showing exchange rates for USD, EUR, and GBP. Perfect for finance themes.

Economy1 de agosto de 20265 min de lectura

Fed Holds Rates Steady in 9-3 Vote as Three Regional Presidents Dissent, Pushing for Hike

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, but a rare three-vote dissent — the first such split in nearly a decade — signals growing impatience among policymakers over inflation that has remained above the 2% target for more than five years amid the Iran war and tariff-driven price pressures.

Vibrant stock market display showing exchange rates for USD, EUR, and GBP. Perfect for finance themes.

Economy1 de agosto de 20265 min de lectura

Fed holds rates steady in 9-3 vote as three dissidents seek hike; inflation and Middle East war loom

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75%, but a three-member dissent for a quarter-point increase — the first such split in nearly a decade — signaled growing impatience with elevated inflation fueled by the Iran war and trade policy.

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Economy15 de julio de 20266 min de lectura

Warsh Signals No Tolerance for Inflation, Keeps Policy Options Open in First Congressional Testimony

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh told lawmakers the central bank has “no tolerance” for persistently elevated inflation but stopped short of signaling rate hikes, stressing the Fed’s institutional independence and a data-driven approach.

Close-up of a vintage IBM circuit board showcasing electronic components and retro technology.

Economy15 de julio de 20264 min de lectura

IBM Plunge Weighs on Dow as Software Rout Spreads; CPI Cools, Bank Earnings Mixed

IBM suffered its worst single-day drop since the 1987 crash after warning that AI spending is diverting corporate budgets from software to hardware, dragging the Dow lower even as cooler-than-expected June CPI data and a mostly positive start to bank earnings lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Two empty chairs in a gritty urban environment with graffiti-covered brick walls.

Economy15 de julio de 20265 min de lectura

Fed Chair Warsh, in First Testimony, Vows No Tolerance for Inflation, Defends Independence

Kevin Warsh told Congress the Federal Reserve has “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation” but declined to signal rate moves, while insisting the central bank will remain independent of political pressure and economic data will guide decisions.

Large Pro-Palestinian demonstration in Dhaka with flags and banners supporting freedom and solidarity.

Economy14 de julio de 20264 min de lectura

Anti-migrant protests threaten South Africa's economy as foreign-worker exodus risks labor shortages

Thousands of African migrants have left South Africa after a nationwide anti-migrant march on June 30, and economists warn the exodus could damage the businesses and jobs protesters aim to protect, while investors flag a new risk factor.