栏目

Economy

Macro trends, growth, inflation, and labor markets.

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Economy2026年10月24日5 分钟阅读

Gold Heads for Sharpest Weekly Drop Since June on Higher-for-Longer Fed Rate Expectations

Bullion is on track for a weekly decline of about 3.5%, its steepest since June, as rising oil prices and resilient US economic data reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年10月24日5 分钟阅读

South Africa Budget Yields Fiscal Gains, But Growth Woes Persist

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s medium-term budget delivered improved fiscal metrics, but a sharply lowered growth forecast and warnings from business leaders underscored persistent structural challenges that could undermine the gains.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年10月24日4 分钟阅读

South Africa’s medium-term budget wins fiscal praise but growth doubts persist

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement cut the 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.6%, drawing business applause for fiscal discipline but sharp criticism from opposition parties and warnings that low growth undermines job creation.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年10月23日5 分钟阅读

South Africa's growth downgrade tests fiscal credibility as business calls for faster reforms

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's medium-term budget cuts the 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.6%, drawing sharp political criticism and a unified call from business leaders for structural reforms to turn fiscal stability into higher economic growth.

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Elena Voss

Economy2026年10月23日6 分钟阅读

South Africa’s medium-term budget wins fiscal credibility but growth fears persist as 2026 GDP forecast slashed to 1.2%

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement delivered a stronger fiscal anchor and lower deficits, but a sharply downgraded growth forecast of 1.2% for 2026 drew warnings from business, labour and opposition parties that structural reforms must accelerate to tackle unemployment and lift the economy.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年10月23日3 分钟阅读

Chalmers Warns of Softer Growth, Higher Unemployment as Rate Hike Looms

Treasurer Jim Chalmers will tell a Sydney forum that higher interest rates and inflation are likely to mean softer growth and slightly higher unemployment, as markets price in a 64% chance of a fifth rate hike next month.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年10月22日5 分钟阅读

South Africa tables fiscal anchor as IMF cuts growth, revenue windfall eases deficit

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presents the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement on Wednesday, unveiling a principles-based fiscal anchor while the IMF slashes the 2026 growth forecast to 1% and a R50-billion revenue overrun narrows the deficit to about 3.5% of GDP.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年10月21日4 分钟阅读

South Africa's mid-term budget heads for growth cut, debt-stress reality check

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana tables the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement this week against sharply lower growth forecasts and record fuel prices, with analysts expecting a downward revision in Treasury's outlook and a delay in the point at which debt stabilises.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年10月21日5 分钟阅读

French bonds and euro slide as weekend riots underscore fiscal crisis

French markets tumbled Monday after widespread protests highlighted the government’s difficulty in cutting a record deficit, sending the 10-year yield up 13 basis points and the CAC 40 down 1.5% while the euro fell against the dollar.

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Elena Voss

Top view of financial reports, smartphone showing stock market data, and a laptop on desk.

Economy2026年10月21日4 分钟阅读

China Q3 GDP Beats Forecasts at 4.5%, Easing Urgency for Fresh Stimulus

China's economy expanded 4.5% in the third quarter from a year earlier, topping expectations and bringing full-year growth within reach of Beijing's target range, reducing the immediate pressure for aggressive new stimulus measures.

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Elena Voss

Economy2026年10月21日5 分钟阅读

China Q3 GDP Beats Forecasts, Easing Urgency for More Stimulus

China’s economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter, topping expectations and bringing the official annual target within reach, but weak domestic demand and a deepening property slump continue to weigh on the recovery.

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Elena Voss

A smartphone displaying stock data rests on a financial report graph.

Economy2026年10月20日5 分钟阅读

China GDP Beat Fuels Global Risk Rally as Exports Propel Lopsided Growth

China’s economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter, topping forecasts and lifting bitcoin, Nasdaq futures and Asian equities, while a record trade surplus underscored deepening reliance on exports amid a prolonged property slump.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年10月4日4 分钟阅读

Nigeria's Economy Grows Over 4% in 2026; Tinubu Declares 'Age of Prosperity' as Non-Oil Sectors Drive Expansion

President Bola Tinubu said Nigeria’s economy expanded by more than 4% in 2026, with official data showing the non-oil sector contributed 95.84% of real GDP in the second quarter, as the government pivots from stabilisation reforms to cost-of-living relief and industrial growth.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年10月4日4 分钟阅读

September Jobs Miss Drives Yields Lower, Rate-Hike Bets Fade as Payrolls Rise Just 29,000

U.S. employers added 29,000 jobs in September, far below the 90,000 economists expected, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. Treasury yields tumbled and stocks rose as traders pared bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike.

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Elena Voss

Economy2026年10月4日4 分钟阅读

September Jobs Miss Deepens as Payrolls Add Just 29,000; Unemployment Rises to 4.2%

The U.S. added only 29,000 jobs in September, sharply below the 90,000 economists expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% and annual wage growth slowed to 3%. Bond yields tumbled and stocks rebounded as markets pared expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年10月4日4 分钟阅读

Nigeria GDP Growth Tops 4% as Non-Oil Sector Drives Expansion, Tinubu Declares 'Age of Prosperity'

President Bola Tinubu announced the economy grew by more than 4% in 2026, citing Q2 real GDP of 4.43% and a record $6 billion in non-oil export earnings, as the government shifts focus from reform to broad-based prosperity. The non-oil sector now accounts for over 95% of output, underlining the country's diversification story for frontier and commodity investors.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年10月3日3 分钟阅读

September Jobs Miss Lifts Rate-Cut Bets; U.S. Adds 29,000 vs 90,000 Expected

A weak September payrolls report showing just 29,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% sent stocks higher and bond yields lower, as traders boosted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年10月3日4 分钟阅读

Dollar Rebounds on Rising Yields, Upward GDP Revision

The dollar index edged higher Wednesday as T-note yields rose after the U.S. economy grew at a faster pace than initially reported in the second quarter, with inflation data offering a mixed picture for the Federal Reserve.

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Elena Voss

Detailed view of Benjamin Franklin's face on a US dollar bill, showcasing fine engraving.

Economy2026年10月2日5 分钟阅读

RBA Hikes Cash Rate to 4.6%, a 15-Year High, Warns of Further Increases

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark rate to 4.6% on Tuesday, the highest level in 15 years, and Governor Michele Bullock signalled more tightening may be needed as domestic capacity pressures and global shocks keep inflation elevated.

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Elena Voss

Economy2026年10月2日4 分钟阅读

US GDP Revised Higher, Inflation Cools; ADP Data Eases Rate-Hike Fears, Boosts Risk Appetite

The U.S. economy grew at a faster clip in the second quarter than initially estimated, while a key inflation gauge came in cooler than expected, reducing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month and lifting gold and risk assets.

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Elena Voss

A person wearing denim and a checked shirt holds folded dollar bills in their hand indoors.

Economy2026年10月1日4 分钟阅读

RBA Lifts Cash Rate to 15-Year High of 4.6%, Flags More Hikes if Inflation Stays Elevated

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.6 per cent, the highest in 15 years, and warned further increases may be needed if inflation remains “unacceptably high,” as Governor Michele Bullock pointed to domestic capacity pressures and weak productivity as core drivers of price rises.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年10月1日4 分钟阅读

Dollar Slides, Stocks Mixed as Cooler US Inflation Data Eases Fed Rate Hike Pressure

Softer-than-expected readings on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and a downward revision to second-quarter core PCE reduced the probability of an October rate hike to 35%, sending the dollar lower and supporting gold, while mixed stock market results reflected broader economic crosscurrents.

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Elena Voss

Economy2026年10月1日4 分钟阅读

US GDP Revised Higher, Core Inflation Cools; Treasury Yields Remain Elevated

The US economy grew at a 2.2% annualized rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said, while the Fed’s preferred core inflation gauge rose less than expected in August, cutting the market-implied chance of an October rate hike to around 35%. Treasury yields held near multi-year highs, reflecting stronger growth expectations but also fueling mixed equity market outcomes.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年9月30日5 分钟阅读

RBA Hikes to 15-Year High of 4.6%, Bullock Warns of Further Tightening

The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate to 4.6% on Tuesday, a 15-year peak, and flagged more increases may come as Governor Michele Bullock cited domestic capacity pressures and a productivity slump – pushing back against the government’s emphasis on global shocks.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年9月30日5 分钟阅读

RBA Hikes Rates to 4.6%, a 15-Year High, Signaling More Tightening Ahead

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.6 per cent on Tuesday, the highest level in 15 years, with Governor Michele Bullock warning that further increases may follow as domestic capacity pressures and global shocks keep inflation “unacceptably high.”

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年9月14日4 分钟阅读

Anthropic Model Maps AI's 2030 Economic Impact: Growth vs. Mass Unemployment

Anthropic released an economic model projecting that rapid AI adoption could boost annual US growth to 15.4% by 2030 while driving overall unemployment to 11.9%, with cognitive employment collapsing 21.5%. The model explicitly excludes catastrophic outcomes that company researchers and a former employee have warned about.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年9月14日4 分钟阅读

Anthropic Model Projects AI-Driven GDP Boom and Labor Disruption by 2030

An economic model from Anthropic suggests AI could boost U.S. GDP by up to 32% by 2030 while triggering double-digit unemployment among knowledge workers. The lab's own researchers privately estimate a greater than 10% chance the technology could eliminate humanity.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年9月13日5 分钟阅读

Anthropic's AI economic model forecasts booms and busts, omits extinction scenario

Anthropic released an economic model projecting US GDP could rise 1.6% to 32.4% by 2030 depending on AI adoption, with unemployment reaching as high as 11.9% in the most extreme case. The model does not account for the technology's catastrophic risks or an AI bubble, even as senior employees publicly warned this week of a greater than 10% chance AI could kill everyone.

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Lin Mei

Economy2026年9月13日5 分钟阅读

Anthropic Model Maps AI's Potential to Turbocharge GDP or Spur Mass Unemployment by 2030

Anthropic released economic scenarios for the US by 2030 that range from a modest 1.6% GDP boost to an unprecedented 32.4% surge, but the extreme path sees unemployment spike to 11.9% and a historic shift in income from workers to capital owners.

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Elena Voss

Economy2026年9月12日4 分钟阅读

Anthropic AI Economic Model Projects Up to 32% GDP Gain, Double-Digit Unemployment by 2030

Anthropic released a detailed economic model on Wednesday showing artificial intelligence could boost U.S. GDP by as much as 32.4% by the end of the decade or drive unemployment above 11% in a worst-case scenario, with knowledge workers bearing the heaviest losses.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年9月12日4 分钟阅读

Anthropic Maps AI's Economic Upside – and Its Omissions

The AI company released scenarios Wednesday projecting GDP gains from 1.6% to 32.4% above baseline by 2030, with the most extreme case showing 15.4% annual growth but 11.9% unemployment. The model excludes catastrophic outcomes that company staff have publicly warned about.

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Elena Voss

Economy2026年9月11日4 分钟阅读

Anthropic Model Projects AI Could Boost U.S. GDP by Over 30% or Drive Historic Unemployment by 2030

Anthropic released an interactive economic model showing U.S. outcomes through 2030 across three AI adoption scenarios, ranging from a modest GDP lift to an extreme where output rises 32% but unemployment may spike to levels unseen in history.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年9月11日5 分钟阅读

US debt surge sparks global recession fears as Australian Treasury war-games fallout

The Australian Treasury is modeling the financial impact of soaring global interest rates on government debt, oil prices and inflation, warning the confluence of risks led by runaway US borrowing could drive the world into recession. President Donald Trump’s promise of $5,000 payments to every American adult, costing at least $1.3 trillion, has added fresh fuel to bond market turmoil.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年9月10日4 分钟阅读

Anthropic Launches AI Economic Model, Projects Growth and Disruption Risks

Anthropic released an interactive economic model projecting how AI could reshape the U.S. economy by 2030, from modest growth with little disruption to an extreme scenario where GDP surges 32% but unemployment spikes to nearly 14%. The tool allows users to test their own assumptions about AI capability, adoption, and worker displacement.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年8月25日6 分钟阅读

Iran rial hits record low as US launches 'Operation Economic Outcast' sanctions

Iran's rial plunged to a record low of 2.02 million per dollar Monday as Washington announced a new sanctions campaign — "Operation Economic Outcast" — and warned countries still trading with Tehran they could be next.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年8月3日3 分钟阅读

UK recession risk rises if Strait of Hormuz stays closed until 2027, EY warns

The UK economy faces a potential contraction next year if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut through early to mid-2027, according to a new EY forecast that underscores the geo-economic threat from the Iran conflict. Growth would slow to 0.5% in 2026 and turn negative at -0.2% in 2027, while inflation could surge to 6.4%.

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Elena Voss

Economy2026年8月3日4 分钟阅读

Fed Holds Rates Steady as Three Dissent; Warsh Faces Pressure from Trump and Inflation

The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep its benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a rate hike, as Chair Kevin Warsh navigates persistent inflation, the Iran war, and explicit calls from President Trump for lower borrowing costs.

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Elena Voss

Economy2026年8月3日5 分钟阅读

Fed holds rates at 3.5-3.75% in 9-3 vote, three dissenters signal hawkish pivot

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged Wednesday, but three regional bank presidents dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike, the first time in nearly a decade that three members have voted for an increase. The split raises the probability of a September rate move as inflation remains above target and the Middle East conflict fuels energy costs.

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Elena Voss

Economy2026年8月2日6 分钟阅读

Fed Holds Rate Steady at 3.5%-3.75% Amid Deepest Dissent in a Decade; Hawkish Signals Rattle Markets

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at a 9-3 vote, the largest dissent in nearly a decade, as three regional presidents pushed for a quarter-point hike. Markets sold off on the hawkish hold, with the dollar sliding and bond yields rising, as traders priced in an over 80% chance of a September increase.

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Elena Voss

Economy2026年8月2日5 分钟阅读

Fed holds rates steady, three dissenters push for hike as inflation pressures persist

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three regional bank presidents favoring a quarter-point increase. Markets sold off on the hawkish tilt, with the Dow falling over 700 points ahead of the decision and oil prices surging above $90 a barrel amid the expanding Middle East conflict.

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Elena Voss

Economy2026年8月1日5 分钟阅读

Fed Holds Rates Steady in 9-3 Vote as Three Regional Presidents Dissent, Pushing for Hike

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, but a rare three-vote dissent — the first such split in nearly a decade — signals growing impatience among policymakers over inflation that has remained above the 2% target for more than five years amid the Iran war and tariff-driven price pressures.

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Elena Voss

Economy2026年8月1日5 分钟阅读

Fed holds rates steady in 9-3 vote as three dissidents seek hike; inflation and Middle East war loom

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75%, but a three-member dissent for a quarter-point increase — the first such split in nearly a decade — signaled growing impatience with elevated inflation fueled by the Iran war and trade policy.

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Elena Voss

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Economy2026年7月15日6 分钟阅读

Warsh Signals No Tolerance for Inflation, Keeps Policy Options Open in First Congressional Testimony

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh told lawmakers the central bank has “no tolerance” for persistently elevated inflation but stopped short of signaling rate hikes, stressing the Fed’s institutional independence and a data-driven approach.

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Catherine Reed

Close-up of a vintage IBM circuit board showcasing electronic components and retro technology.

Economy2026年7月15日4 分钟阅读

IBM Plunge Weighs on Dow as Software Rout Spreads; CPI Cools, Bank Earnings Mixed

IBM suffered its worst single-day drop since the 1987 crash after warning that AI spending is diverting corporate budgets from software to hardware, dragging the Dow lower even as cooler-than-expected June CPI data and a mostly positive start to bank earnings lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

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James Holloway

Two empty chairs in a gritty urban environment with graffiti-covered brick walls.

Economy2026年7月15日5 分钟阅读

Fed Chair Warsh, in First Testimony, Vows No Tolerance for Inflation, Defends Independence

Kevin Warsh told Congress the Federal Reserve has “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation” but declined to signal rate moves, while insisting the central bank will remain independent of political pressure and economic data will guide decisions.

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Elena Voss

Large Pro-Palestinian demonstration in Dhaka with flags and banners supporting freedom and solidarity.

Economy2026年7月14日4 分钟阅读

Anti-migrant protests threaten South Africa's economy as foreign-worker exodus risks labor shortages

Thousands of African migrants have left South Africa after a nationwide anti-migrant march on June 30, and economists warn the exodus could damage the businesses and jobs protesters aim to protect, while investors flag a new risk factor.

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Elena Voss