Section

Economy

Macro trends, growth, inflation, and labor markets.

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Economy3 August 20263 min read

UK recession risk rises if Strait of Hormuz stays closed until 2027, EY warns

The UK economy faces a potential contraction next year if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut through early to mid-2027, according to a new EY forecast that underscores the geo-economic threat from the Iran conflict. Growth would slow to 0.5% in 2026 and turn negative at -0.2% in 2027, while inflation could surge to 6.4%.

Elena Voss

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Economy3 August 20264 min read

Fed Holds Rates Steady as Three Dissent; Warsh Faces Pressure from Trump and Inflation

The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep its benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a rate hike, as Chair Kevin Warsh navigates persistent inflation, the Iran war, and explicit calls from President Trump for lower borrowing costs.

Elena Voss

Economy3 August 20265 min read

Fed holds rates at 3.5-3.75% in 9-3 vote, three dissenters signal hawkish pivot

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged Wednesday, but three regional bank presidents dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike, the first time in nearly a decade that three members have voted for an increase. The split raises the probability of a September rate move as inflation remains above target and the Middle East conflict fuels energy costs.

Elena Voss

Economy2 August 20266 min read

Fed Holds Rate Steady at 3.5%-3.75% Amid Deepest Dissent in a Decade; Hawkish Signals Rattle Markets

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at a 9-3 vote, the largest dissent in nearly a decade, as three regional presidents pushed for a quarter-point hike. Markets sold off on the hawkish hold, with the dollar sliding and bond yields rising, as traders priced in an over 80% chance of a September increase.

Elena Voss

Economy2 August 20265 min read

Fed holds rates steady, three dissenters push for hike as inflation pressures persist

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three regional bank presidents favoring a quarter-point increase. Markets sold off on the hawkish tilt, with the Dow falling over 700 points ahead of the decision and oil prices surging above $90 a barrel amid the expanding Middle East conflict.

Elena Voss

Economy1 August 20265 min read

Fed Holds Rates Steady in 9-3 Vote as Three Regional Presidents Dissent, Pushing for Hike

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, but a rare three-vote dissent — the first such split in nearly a decade — signals growing impatience among policymakers over inflation that has remained above the 2% target for more than five years amid the Iran war and tariff-driven price pressures.

Elena Voss

Economy1 August 20265 min read

Fed holds rates steady in 9-3 vote as three dissidents seek hike; inflation and Middle East war loom

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75%, but a three-member dissent for a quarter-point increase — the first such split in nearly a decade — signaled growing impatience with elevated inflation fueled by the Iran war and trade policy.

Elena Voss

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Economy15 July 20266 min read

Warsh Signals No Tolerance for Inflation, Keeps Policy Options Open in First Congressional Testimony

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh told lawmakers the central bank has “no tolerance” for persistently elevated inflation but stopped short of signaling rate hikes, stressing the Fed’s institutional independence and a data-driven approach.

Catherine Reed

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Economy15 July 20264 min read

IBM Plunge Weighs on Dow as Software Rout Spreads; CPI Cools, Bank Earnings Mixed

IBM suffered its worst single-day drop since the 1987 crash after warning that AI spending is diverting corporate budgets from software to hardware, dragging the Dow lower even as cooler-than-expected June CPI data and a mostly positive start to bank earnings lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

James Holloway

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Economy15 July 20265 min read

Fed Chair Warsh, in First Testimony, Vows No Tolerance for Inflation, Defends Independence

Kevin Warsh told Congress the Federal Reserve has “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation” but declined to signal rate moves, while insisting the central bank will remain independent of political pressure and economic data will guide decisions.

Elena Voss

Large Pro-Palestinian demonstration in Dhaka with flags and banners supporting freedom and solidarity.

Economy14 July 20264 min read

Anti-migrant protests threaten South Africa's economy as foreign-worker exodus risks labor shortages

Thousands of African migrants have left South Africa after a nationwide anti-migrant march on June 30, and economists warn the exodus could damage the businesses and jobs protesters aim to protect, while investors flag a new risk factor.

Elena Voss