Gold Firms, Oil Slumps as Trump Pauses Iran Strikes; Immediate Cross-Asset Rally

Oil prices suffered their sharpest one-day drop in months Monday as President Donald Trump paused planned military strikes on Iran, opening the door to a "rapid" deal that could restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The move sparked a broad rotation out of safe-haven energy assets and into risk-onsesitive plays, with gold, equities, and cryptocurrencies all rallying.

ICE Brent settled more than 7% lower on the day, according to ING, while West Texas Intermediate crude slid as low as $76 a barrel, ZeroHedge reported, citing comments from U.S. Tresury Secretary Scott Bessent that "we may have Iran deal tomorrow to open Hormuz." By Wednesday, Brent crude traded at $80.29 per barrel, down 1.17%, and WTI was at $76.20, up 0.5%, after volatility, according to NDTV Profit.

Trump said the U.S. would hold off on strikes provided a deal comes together "rapidly," claiming Iran and other regional players asked Washington to pause. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman publicly urged Trump to prioritize dialogue, according to a detailed account from Medium. Iranian officials, however, continued to deny direct talks with Washington, insisting that current discussions with Oman are limited to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks with Oman were in the final stages of agreeing on a new route through the strait, per ZeroHedge.

**Gold and Silver Surge**

Precious metals surged as the drop in oil prices eased inflation concerns and improved the macro backdrop for bullion. SPOT gold rose to a seven-week high of $4,285.84 an ounce on Thursday, its highest since June 18, according to a livelog from Indiatimes. It recorded its biggest single-day gain since February on Wednesday. Silver soared 4.9% to $62.44 an ounce, reaching a one-month high.

In India, Goldman futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange jumped 1.35% or Rs 2,000 to Rs 1.46,241 per 10 grams on Wednesday, NDVT Profit reported. Silver September futures surged Rs 4,783 or 2.16% to Rs 2.26,398 per kg. By Thursday, gold in Delhi had risen Rs 3,800 to Rs 1.53,800 per 10 grams, marking three straight sesions of gains, Indiatimes reported. The Reserve Bank of India held its repo rate steady at 5.25%, which may have kept traders anchored to safe-haven metals.

Analysts said a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasry yields supported bullion. J.P. Morgan noted that exchange-traded fund flows have become the key driver of gold prices after weaker demand from central banks, according to Indiatimes.

**Cryptocurrencies Lift Across the Board**

Major digital coins closed higher as the threat of a wider Middle East conflict receded. Bitcoin rose 1.19% to $63,516, stepping off the $62K support level that had been under pressure, according to an analysis from Medium. Ethereum led on a rotation basis, gaining 2.38% to $1,888 and reclaiming the $1,800 weekly-close shelf. Cardano jumped 8.59% to $0.1891, the strongest gain among the majors, though the report cautioned the move reflected thin liquidity rather than fundamental repricing.

Solana, Binance Coin, and XRP all closed green in a narrow 2-3% band, trading in lockstep as a shared risk signal returned, the Medium analysis concluded. The macro backdrop was supported by the U.S. dollar holding under 100 and gold near records, both of which function as a "quiet debasement tell" for Bitcoin’s long-term thesis. The Fear & Greed Index, however, remained frozen at 27—still in "Fear" territory—indicating that sentiment has not yet caught up with price action, according to the Medium report.

**Equities Hit Records**

U.S. stock futures rose to all-time highs as lower energy prices and falling bond yields fueled an "everything rally." S&P 500 futures climbed 0.5% by Tuesday morning, with the Nasdaq also extending gains earlier in the week, per ZeroHedge. The move was broad, with cyclicals leading defensives and energy the lone laggard. Bessent’s remarks on CNBC accelerated the rally in equites by reinforcing hopes for a quick resolution.

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said that the momentum selloff in AI stocks is likely over, while Deutsche Bank’s Prag Thatte sees room for the rotation back into tech, ZeroHedge reported.

**Risk of Rescalation Remains**

Despite the market’s optimim, analysts cautioned that the oil sell-off may be overdone given the uncertainy that remains. Iran continues to deny direct talks, and Trump issued warnings about the consequences if no deal materializes. ING noted that a cargo vessel off the Omani coast was struck by an unidentified projectile. "We’ve been in this situation multiple times before, only to see things unravel," ING wrote, adding that the backdrop leaves ample room for renewed escalation.

Gold is likely to remain caught between improving geopolitical sentiment and ongoing uncertainty over U.S. interest rates, while oil volatility is expected to persist until a concrete agreement on the Strait of Hormuz is reached. Markets will now focus on the U.S. July jobs report for further guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.