SpaceX Shares Slump Over 50% From Peak in Post-IPO Volatility

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX) has lost more than half of its market value since surging days after its June initial public offering, underscoring the volatility that has gripped the most hyped stock debut in years.

Shares traded near $113 on July 29, down from an intraday high of $225.64 recorded shortly after listing. The stock priced at $135 in June, giving the company a historic $75 billion IPO, according to BusinessDay. The decline has wiped out billions in market capitalization, though SpaceX still commands a market cap of roughly $1.5 trillion, placing it among the top 10 largest companies globally.

**Valuation and cash burn drive sell-off**

Analysts cite multiple factors behind the drop. The most persistent concern is valuation. SpaceX’s price-to-sales ratio stands at 78, according to Nasdaq. By comparison, Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, trades at a sales multiple of 20.

The company is burning cash at an accelerating rate. Capital expenditures reached $20.7 billion in 2025, nearly double the prior year’s $11.2 billion, Nasdaq reported. First-quarter 2026 operating loss widened to $1.9 billion, a sharp reversal from 2025’s full-year operating income of $27 million. Under generally accepted accounting principles, the company reported a first-quarter loss of $4.3 billion, according to Nasdaq.

Revenue grew 33% in 2025 to $18.7 billion, but growth slowed to 15% year-over-year in the first quarter to $4.7 billion. The rocket business, a core segment, saw revenue drop 28% in the quarter to $619 million, dragged by fewer launches.

Starlink, the satellite internet unit, remains the standout performer. It generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, up 50% year-over-year. The connectivity segment is the only one of SpaceX’s three operating divisions currently profitable, according to Nasdaq.

**Earnings test and lock-up pressure**

The first earnings report as a public company is expected on August 4, according to BusinessDay. Investors will scrutinize revenue growth from Starlink, profitability of launch operations, spending on artificial intelligence, and progress on Starship development.

Adding to near-term pressure, an insider lock-up period is set to expire on August 6, which could allow early investors and employees to sell shares, potentially increasing supply, BusinessDay reported.

**Wall Street deeply divided**

Despite the sell-off, most analysts remain bullish. Of 31 analysts who have issued price targets, 23 rate the stock a buy, seven say hold, and one says sell, according to Motley Fool and Nasdaq. The average price target of roughly $235 per share implies more than a doubling from current levels.

But the range is extreme. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens issued a sell rating before the IPO with a price target of $63, arguing that even an optimistic scenario valuing the company near $2 trillion still only supports $154 per share. Owens’s scenario assumes Starship achieves multiple launches per week and orbital data centers become operational, generating $225 billion in annual revenue from AI computing.

At the opposite end, Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale assigned an $800 price target, valuing SpaceX at about $10 trillion. He called the company, as reported by Motley Fool and Nasdaq, “the most significant infrastructure convergence since the advent of the Internet,” predicting its rockets and Starship will evolve into a “commercial aviation-like” operation. Gesuale projects more than $837 billion in revenue by 2031.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas maintains an overweight rating and a $300 price target, according to BusinessDay. Jonas argued that a drop to roughly $100 implies the market assigns zero value to the AI business, while his valuation of the core space and connectivity operations supports about $136 per share.

**Long-term bets hinge on AI and Starship**

SpaceX’s valuation depends heavily on its artificial intelligence division, which houses X, Grok, data centers, and a planned terafab facility. The division’s total addressable market is $26.5 trillion, according to the company’s registration statement. But realizing that potential requires Starship, the reusable super-heavy-lift rocket, to become fully operational to power orbital data centers and further Starlink expansion.

Ark Invest estimates SpaceX will reach an enterprise value of $2.5 trillion by 2030, assuming Starlink generates $300 billion in annual revenue by 2035, Nasdaq reported. Starlink’s 2025 revenue of $11.4 billion underscores the gap between current performance and that target.

For now, the market is weighing a future of transformational potential against the reality of widening losses, rising capital demands, and a stock that has already lost half its peak value. The August earnings report and lock-up expiration will likely determine whether the sell-off is a buying opportunity or the beginning of a longer valuation reset.