SpaceX Stock’s Post-IPO Slide Hits $1 Trillion, Pressures Space ETFs

SpaceX stock (SPCX) has lost more than $1 trillion in value since its post-IPO high last month, a dramatic reversal for the largest public listing in history that is directly pressuring exchange-traded funds heavily weighted in the company.

The stock priced at $135 on June 12 and surged to a high of $225 within its first week, briefly overtaking Amazon and Microsoft in total market value. Since then, it has fallen more than 30% from that peak, recently trading around $115-$118, well below its IPO price and $160.95 first-day close.

The reversal follows a pattern seen in past mega-IPOs. SpaceX was valued at roughly $1.8 trillion upon going public, a multiple analysts said was unsupported by its roughly $18 billion in 2025 revenue. According to a Barron's analysis cited by Nasdaq, the stock has underperformed 90% of other large U.S. IPOs since 2009. Fool.com reported that eight of the ten largest U.S. IPOs have underperformed the S&P 500 since listing.

Historical data from Edward Jones shows the average newly listed technology stock was down 14% from its IPO price six months after going public between 2011 and 2020. Fool.com noted that SpaceX's trajectory closely mirrors Facebook's 2012 IPO, which plunged more than 30% in its first weeks before eventually recovering. The alternative path is represented by Alibaba, which surged initially but remains more than 60% below its peak and has delivered a return of just 27% since its IPO. Nasdaq Economic Research data indicates that nearly two-thirds of large IPOs were still in the red three years after listing.

Adding to the selling pressure is an unusual staggered lockup schedule. According to the company's IPO filings cited by Nasdaq, Elon Musk and his associates agreed not to sell any stock for 366 days. Other insiders face a series of unlock dates. The first major tranche—over 900 million shares—becomes eligible for sale on Aug. 6, two days after the company's first quarterly earnings report on Aug. 4. "It seems likely that some will gladly monetize their stake," analysts at The Motley Fool wrote.

Eligible insiders can sell up to 20% of their holdings after the Q2 report, followed by an additional 7% on each of the 70th, 90th, 105th, 120th, and 135th days after the IPO. A performance-based provision allows an extra 10% to be sold if the stock closes 30% above the IPO price for five out of ten consecutive trading days, a threshold that has not yet been reached. After the third-quarter earnings report, another 28% becomes eligible, bringing the total eligible to 83%.

The volatility has directly impacted ETFs that offered investors early exposure to SpaceX. According to a Nasdaq report, the Baron First Principles ETF (RONB) is the largest publicly available ETF holder, with SpaceX now representing 31.9% of its $328.8 million portfolio. The Roundhill Space & Technology ETF (MARS) holds a 21.41% weighting, and the VanEck Space ETF (WARP) allocates 21.1% to the stock. Even SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, a move expected to drive buying from index funds, failed to stem the decline.

The selloff comes as SpaceX faces growing competition. Blue Origin, backed by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, is reportedly seeking funding at a $130 billion valuation, and Amazon is preparing its own satellite internet service through its LEO network, positioning it as a future competitor to SpaceX's Starlink unit.

Despite the near-term headwinds, analysts point to SpaceX's long-term potential. The company's Starmind initiative aims to launch up to 1 million satellites to process AI workloads, a project that could disrupt the data center market. The competitive advantages of Starmind, including low energy costs from solar power, could make SpaceX a dominant player in the AI data center market. Its Starlink satellite internet business also has a real opportunity to challenge dominant telecom carriers such as AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon.

For investors, the upcoming earnings report and lockup expiration represent key inflection points. Conservative investors may prefer to wait until after the lockup period and the establishment of a more stable trading range before initiating positions. For those with a longer horizon and higher risk tolerance, the recent correction could present a better entry opportunity than the IPO frenzy.