UK cyber chief warns AI-powered attack on critical infrastructure likely by 2028

LONDON, Nov 3 (The Wiregazette) – Britain should brace for an AI-powered cyberattack on its critical national infrastructure by 2028, the head of the National Cyber Security Centre warned on Tuesday, saying decades of underinvestment in security have left the country exposed.

Richard Horne, chief executive of the NCSC, said it is "highly likely" that Russia, China and other nation states will use artificial intelligence to conduct ransomware attacks and exploitation targeting sectors including energy, defence, transport, health and food supply.

"In the coming months, we face a real prospect of an unprecedented rise in the number of cyber incidents," Horne is expected to say in a speech marking the release of the NCSC's annual State of the Cyber Nation report. "But we must be clear that is not because AI has invented new ways to attack us, but because vulnerabilities that have been tolerated for far too long can now be discovered and exploited at a scale that was once unimaginable."

The NCSC report states that "by 2028, it is highly likely China, Russia, and other nation states will routinely use AI cyber to achieve their geopolitical goals with the UK facing an increase in scale and speed of sophisticated cyber attacks." It adds that "it is also highly likely that between now and 2028, AI-powered malware will have been used in a ransomware attack on UK CNI."

Horne said the cyber threat has "increased faster than our defensive capabilities, leaving too many organisations vulnerable to attacks that could – and should – be prevented." He warned that "preventable weaknesses" such as unpatched software and poor password protection suggest some organisations are not taking the threat seriously.

The warning comes amid a series of major global cyber incidents. The largest cryptocurrency hack in history, which hit Binance, saw approximately $6.3 billion in digital assets stolen, according to a postmortem released by the exchange on Tuesday. The attack was attributed to North Korean hackers by the FBI. Binance reported that $2.85 billion had been frozen or intercepted and said it would absorb the losses.

Other recent attacks include the crippling of Jaguar Land Rover's production last year and hacks on refrigeration systems across parts of Europe that affected food supply. Horne cited the supermarket fridge attacks, where hackers raised temperatures to more than 50°C, as a warning to companies to invest in cyber resilience.

According to the NCSC report and Horne's planned remarks, China is singled out as the most sophisticated cyber threat. Horne will say that "China highly likely has the intent and is best positioned to use AI for operations against our critical national infrastructure and other strategic targets with their activity representing the most sophisticated and sustained cyber challenge the UK faces."

Russia is making sustained attempts to penetrate UK military networks, Horne is expected to say, while Iran is carrying out malicious cyber operations globally, including against the UK and individuals seen as a threat. Moscow, Beijing and Tehran have repeatedly denied similar accusations in the past.

Horne said the country faces a "moment of choice": either make cybersecurity "a source of national strength" or risk attacks becoming "more frequent, more severe and more costly" through inaction. He will urge leaders to invest with urgency, adding: "For decades, we have collectively got away with doing tech on the cheap."

The NCSC's warning follows last month's launch of the UK government's "Be Ready" campaign, which urged households to stockpile water and food to survive a serious emergency, including cyberattacks. Defence Secretary Wes Streeting said at the time that Britain needed to prepare for "state-sponsored terrorism" targeting everyday infrastructure.