UN Data Shows Food Prices Rose in July on Heatwaves, Energy Costs; Cereals, Sugar, Vegetable Oils Lead Gains

The cost of key food commodities edged higher in July as searing heatwaves, rising energy prices and ongoing geopolitical instability pushed up quotations for cereals, vegetable oils and sugar, according to new data released Friday by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 131.1 points in July 2026, up 0.6 percent from its June level and 1.0 percent higher than a year earlier, the agency reported.

The increase marks a reversal of the declines seen in the cereal index earlier in 2025 and reflects mounting pressure on global food supplies from multiple quarters.

**Cereal prices surge**

The FAO Cereal Price Index rose 3.4 percent from June, standing 6.9 percent above its July 2025 level. Global wheat prices surged 5.8 percent amid continued disruptions to Black Sea export flows, linked to the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, as well as the likely impact of recent heatwaves on crop yields in several key producing countries, FAO said.

World maize prices increased 3.6 percent, supported by concerns over hot and dry weather in parts of the United States and spillover effects from firmer energy markets amid heightened geopolitical tensions. The FAO All Rice Price Index held broadly steady in July.

**Vegetable oils at highest since 2022**

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased 2.0 percent from June, reaching its highest level since June 2022. International palm oil quotations rose, underpinned by firm demand from Indonesia’s biodiesel sector and higher crude oil prices. World soy oil prices also increased on robust feedstock demand in the United States and stronger global import demand. Global sunflower and rapeseed oil prices declined.

**Sugar jumps on weather concerns**

The FAO Sugar Price Index rose 5.6 percent in July, erasing its June decline, due mainly to concerns about persistent hot and dry weather on crop yields in the European Union and El Niño-related conditions on production prospects in key Asian producing countries. Expectations of stronger demand for ethanol in Brazil following a temporary increase in the mandatory ethanol blend in gasoline also provided support, partly offset by improving harvest conditions in Brazil’s Center-South region.

**Meat and dairy ease**

The FAO Meat Price Index weakened 2.8 percent from its record high in June, posting its first monthly decline this year. International poultry prices decreased largely due to lower quotations in Brazil amid ample export supplies, while pig meat quotations dipped on abundant supplies in the European Union and subdued global demand. World bovine meat prices eased on weaker import demand from Asia, while ovine meat prices rose to a new record high on tight exportable supplies from Oceania.

The FAO Dairy Price Index declined 0.7 percent, with quotations for whole and skim milk powders dropping along with butter. Cheese prices rose for the first time in a year as tighter seasonal milk supplies in the EU more than offset declines in Oceania and pressure from ample export supplies from the United States.

**Hunger risks persist despite some improvements**

The rise in food prices comes as millions of people worldwide continue to face acute food insecurity. In Malawi, a “notable improvement” in hunger levels has been seen compared with the last two years, largely because of a good harvest in the 2025/26 farming season following severe El Niño impacts in 2024/25, according to UN-backed food insecurity experts under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC).

Nonetheless, an estimated 1.9 million people in the southern African nation remain in “crisis” levels of acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3, the UN reported. The situation is expected to deteriorate during the October 2026 to March 2027 lean season, when 2.6 million people could slip into crisis or Phase 3 hunger, according to IPC experts, as cited by the UN. “High food prices, inflation, and below-average staple production are driving acute food insecurity, while forecasts of strong El Niño during the 2026/27 rainy season underscore the need for close monitoring,” the experts said.

Many nations from Afghanistan to Djibouti to Honduras are experiencing food insecurity due to armed conflicts and climate change, according to the UN, placing the lives of millions at risk.

**Outlook clouded by multiple factors**

Experts have raised concerns that the factors driving the July price increases are likely to persist. Searing heatwaves, described as a global human rights emergency, continue to threaten harvests. The effects of El Niño on crop yields and growing uncertainty from geopolitical tensions have disrupted supply chains and contributed to an oil crisis, according to the FAO.

Inflation, below-average staple production, and forecasts of El Niño effects during the 2026-2027 rainy season are expected to exacerbate the situation, the UN warned. The FAO noted that the cereal price index reversal in July came after declines in 2025, underscoring the fragility of the global food supply amid climate and conflict pressures.