Futures Rebound as Brent Crude Slips Below $100 on Iran De-escalation Hopes

S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% as of 6:00 a.m. ET, snapping a three-day slide that had pushed the index toward its first back-to-back weekly loss since the early stages of the Iran war. The rebound tracked a sharp pullback in oil prices after Brent crude, which had surged above $100 on Thursday, tumbled more than 3% toward $97 a barrel.

The retreat in crude followed reports that President Trump declined to continue strikes on Iran over the weekend, marking the first extended pause in the aerial campaign. According to a report from Zero Hedge, President Trump’s advisors had presented attack plans for the day, but CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper advised against further strikes, arguing that Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz had been substantially degraded and that the campaign had reached its limits of effectiveness. The New York Times, cited in the same report, noted that General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had cautioned that further escalation would dangerously deplete CENTCOM’s interceptor missile stock.

President Trump denied the report, telling the Wall Street Journal “we have far more [interceptors] than we need,” according to the Zero Hedge article.

In a further sign of de-escalation, an Omani team of negotiators has reportedly met with counterparts in Tehran to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Baqaei called the talks “useful” and said progress had been made, though no change in the strait’s status has occurred, as reported by the same source. The question of whether any agreement between Iran and Oman would be accepted by the United States remains open.

The easing of geopolitical tensions drove a broad reversal in risk assets. Treasury yields, which had surged to their highest levels of the year alongside oil, hovered just below those peaks. A separate report from Zero Hedge described a “massive relax” across markets, with Brent crude falling below $92 a barrel, equity futures pointing higher, and sovereign yields lower across the board. The article noted that the pause in strikes followed President Trump’s earlier threats of “massive attack” that had sent Brent above $100 and pressured equities.

In premarket trading, technology stocks showed mixed performance. Tesla led gains among the so-called Magnificent Seven, rising 1.3% after the electric vehicle maker plunged about 15% on Thursday, according to a report. Microsoft gained 1.1%, Alphabet added 0.7%, Meta rose 0.7%, Amazon advanced 0.5%, and Apple edged up 0.2%. Nvidia slipped 0.4%.

Amkor Technology rallied 11% after the company announced a $1.5 billion multi-year binding agreement with Nvidia to develop advanced semiconductor packaging and test technologies for next-generation AI and accelerated computing platforms, the same report said. Intel gained 4% after the chipmaker’s third-quarter forecast “much stronger than analysts’ expectations,” highlighting the durability of AI-related demand and the success of Intel’s turnaround. The forecast called for sales of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion, well above the $15.1 billion average analyst estimate.

MaxLinear slid 11% after reporting second-quarter results that were only modestly ahead of expectations, and Oracle rose 2.6% after the software company said it won a 10-year contract from the US Department of Defense valued at up to $6.99 billion.

Despite the relief rally, investors remain cautious. Michael Hewson, analyst at iForex, told Zero Hedge he was surprised by how well markets were holding up given the sharp increase in oil prices. “Next week is a really big week and it could be make-or-break in terms of where markets go next,” he said, citing nervousness about AI capital expenditure and return on investment.

ING economist Bert Colijn noted that “were it not for the resurgence of the conflict in the Middle East, the picture would have looked encouraging,” but added that renewed stagflationary pressures are likely to weigh on the euro-zone economy over the summer, according to the report.

The week ahead brings central bank meetings from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, none expected to raise rates, though the inflationary impact of the war will feature in their deliberations. Q2 GDP readings for the US and Eurozone, along with Q2 PCE for the US and July CPI for the Eurozone, are also due.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated. The Wall Street Journal, cited in the Zero Hedge article, reported over the weekend that escalating tit-for-tat between the Saudis and the Houthis threatens to erupt into all-out war, with Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco infrastructure at the critical port of Yanbu following a declaration of a blockade on Red Sea ports. Israel is reportedly bracing for escalation, with public bomb shelters reopened in major cities. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said the war would continue until the Iranian regime fell or gave up its nuclear ambitions.

A separate report from Zero Hedge added that the conflict is not over, and the war in the Middle East, combined with the merging of the Ukraine conflict—after Ukrainian forces struck an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea—continues to pose risks to energy supplies and global markets. For now, traders are taking the pause as a chance to reduce risk pricing, but the underlying tensions remain unresolved.