Warsh Refuses Rate Signal at Jackson Hole; Futures Flat, Yields Up, Bitcoin Falls Below $78,000

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday, his 100th day in office, and used it to tell markets he would not tell them what comes next. The crypto market, which had briefly pushed Bitcoin above $80,000 this week, reacted by selling off.

**Futures flat, bonds rise ahead of the speech**

US stock futures were little changed entering the speech. As of 8 a.m. ET, S&P futures traded near flat, and Nasdaq 100 futures were slightly lower, according to ZeroHedge. Bond yields crept up 1-2 basis points, with the 10-year note at 4.69%. The dollar and gold barely budged. The setup reflected investor caution.

“Investors are reluctant to increase their exposure just hours before Kevin Warsh’s speech,” ZeroHedge quoted Nabil Milali at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management as saying. “His recent comments have been so vague that no one knows what to expect today, with some investors anticipating a very hawkish message and others expecting the exact opposite.”

**Warsh abandons forward guidance**

Decrypt reported that Warsh formally declared forward guidance — the Fed’s practice of hinting where interest rates are headed — has “overstayed its welcome.” He called the dynamic a “hall-of-mirrors problem,” warning that the Fed and the market end up staring at each other’s expectations instead of economic reality.

“Market participants will always try to anticipate what we will do next,” he said, according to Decrypt. “But we should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade.”

Warsh also cited his own 2022 essay on cryptocurrency and the dollar in the footnotes of his speech, Decrypt reported, while arguing that “money” deserves closer Fed attention. He never directly mentioned crypto.

**Inflation data reinforces hawkish tone**

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, is running at 3.7% annually — nearly double the 2% target. Warsh said 54% of the goods and services the Fed tracks have posted price gains above 3% over the past year, Decrypt reported, and he gave no timeline for when that changes.

The India Times reported that Warsh indicated policy could remain restrictive if price pressures persist. Treasury yields moved higher after his remarks, putting pressure on risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

**Bitcoin slides, leverage liquidations spike**

Bitcoin traded near $80,000 heading into the speech, capping a rally of more than 20% over the prior week that Decrypt said was fueled largely by the Treasury Department’s move to buy back more long-dated debt, not Fed signals.

Immediately after the speech, the price shed roughly $1,000 before recovering almost immediately, Decrypt reported. But by Saturday — the day after — Bitcoin had fallen below $78,000. India Times reported it was trading at $77,384, down 2.5% over 24 hours. Ethereum fell 1.9% to $2,430.

Altcoins also declined. Among major tokens, BNB, XRP, Solana, Hyperliquid, Dogecoin and Cardano dropped up to 4.2%, while Tron gained, according to India Times. The global crypto market capitalisation edged down 2.57% to $3.07 trillion, per CoinGecko.

Leverage amplified the selling. India Times reported that around $488 million in crypto positions were liquidated, including more than $360 million in leveraged longs. A move below $77,000 triggered further forced selling.

Riya Sehgal, research analyst at Delta Exchange, told India Times that Bitcoin had fallen from above $81,000 earlier in the week to around $77,700. “Leverage added to the selling,” she said.

**Rate odds already shifted lower**

CME FedWatch data, which converts bond-futures pricing into rate-move odds, showed traders had cut the probability of a September rate hike to 38.4% from 82% a month earlier, with the rest betting on no change, Decrypt reported. Warsh gave traders nothing new to reprice against.

The Federal Reserve’s next rate decision is scheduled for September 15–16, alongside a fresh round of economic projections — exactly the forward-looking signal Warsh said he would rather not give.

Investing.com summarized the mood: Bitcoin’s slip below $78,000 is testing the “digital gold” narrative as macro uncertainty persists.